Everyday Killings in the nation Drop Over a Third During President Sheinbaum, As per Official Statistics

The average count of daily killings each month in Mexico has decreased by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to fresh administrative data. However, security analysts have warned that homicide numbers could fail to point to enhanced national security.

Notable Drop in Per-Day Averages

There was an average of nearly 55 homicides a day in November compared with nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the presidency in September of last year. This information was provided by the director of the country’s national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that have been recorded over these past months is very important,” the President said, explaining that last month the lowest number of homicides were documented for any single November in the past decade.

Recent Context and Government Strategy

Fierce cartel internal conflicts, coupled with the government’s heavily military efforts to take on the cartels, have made Mexico’s murder numbers soar in recent years. The rate hit a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s official data office.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure over 4x greater than the US. Since then, homicides have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety plan for an apparently more pronounced decline in killings this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader said: “We have a plan, we have tracking of the strategy, and there is detailed tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The strategy works. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The main pillars of the President's safety plan encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Greater coordination between government authorities.

Analyst Caution and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, security experts warned that using homicide data to paint a picture of pacification was misleading. This is particularly true in light of the uptick in different crimes such as abductions.

“This would be positive information if this was a drop, but I think we can’t just look at the homicide data and say: ‘Well then, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican cartels. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

Per the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the same timeframe last year. Yet, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not reliable for assessing the reality of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the resources or the desire to accurately recognize and categorize corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using monthly averages of everyday killings was also problematic because it may hide periods when there were particularly elevated levels of killings.

“Using the per-day mean renders high peaks of violence invisible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

Where the administration can cite the success of its security plan is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were arrested between last October and this past November for major offenses, per government data. More than 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s very politically profitable,” said Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Anger

However despite these efforts, Mexico is still grappling with extreme violence, with multiple states in the midst of cartel-related conflict. Last month there was a notable murder of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, many thousands of protesters took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the nation to voice their frustration at graft and drug violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a manner to build a picture of security. Politically it’s extremely successful, from a social perspective it’s very questionable,” the analyst said.