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Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."