Keir Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Several members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to head off any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he caused anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.