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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a type of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the biggest improvement wins the award. However, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or just the most shocking upset.

Yet the latest race is fundamentally unique. The pool of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime underperformers rising collectively. Under an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's facing five other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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