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For a brief period, Donald Trump gave the impression to take a firm stance regarding the Ukrainian conflict. Following making threats of "severe repercussions" last August in case Putin continued obstructing ceasefire talks, the former president ultimately enacted considerable sanctions on the Russian two largest energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision substantially hindered Putin's capability to finance his military invasion in the region.

But, via his newly presented 28-point peace proposal for the conflict, which was drafted by both nations' representatives excluding Ukraine's or European participation, Trump has seemingly gone back to his Russia-friendly stance.

Rewarding Aggression

This proposal would effectively reward Putin for invading a sovereign nation while leaving Ukraine's democratic system in danger. Although strong declarations that "Ukraine's independence will be confirmed", significant aspects of the plan actually weaken that essential autonomy. Seen as a Russian ideal would probably be a catastrophe for the nation.

Demonstrating his real-estate background, Trump seems to view the Ukrainian conflict as a mere border issue, implying giving Putin a part of Ukraine's territory will satisfy the ruler. But, Russia's military campaign is not merely about dominating a destroyed area of economically weakened territory in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about Ukraine's political system – and Putin's obvious desire to destroy it so it stops serves as an appealing example for the Russian people of the responsible leadership that his increasing autocracy prevents them.

Border Surrenders

While keeping in position the already separated oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's proposal would compel the nation to give up the entire Donetsk region. Beyond favoring the Russian Federation with territory that its forces have been unsuccessful to seize in over a decade of warfare, this concession would render Ukrainian defensive positions severely weakened.

This region is the location of Ukraine's well-known "stronghold system", the entrenched defensive positions that represent a critical obstacle to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine leave these defenses, providing Putin a open path to Kyiv if he subsequently choose to resume the war.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Then, in a step that would facilitate renewed conflict more feasible for Russia, the plan would force Ukraine to reduce the numbers of its military from their existing large number personnel to a maximum of this lower number. Significantly, Trump's plan sets no such limits on Russia's military.

Apparently as a accommodation to Russia's attempts to depict Ukraine's democratically elected administration as Nazis, the proposal states: "All Nazi doctrine and actions must be opposed and forbidden." As if to highlight this point, it requires that "The nation will hold democratic votes in this period" of a ceasefire agreement. However, Trump sets no obligation that the Russian leader endanger his regime by conducting democratic processes in Russia.

Defense Guarantees

Certainly, the proposal makes Russia promise not to "attack neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in law its position of non-violence towards the EU and Ukraine". Yet taking into account that Putin has violated similar agreements in the past – such as the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government promised to honor Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for relinquishing its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia agreed to a halt in fighting and a restoration of occupied areas in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – why should the international community have confidence in Putin on this occasion?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on international protection assurances. While the plan promises a "decisive joint armed reaction" if Russia renew its aggression, and includes that "The nation will receive reliable security guarantees", the specifics vary from unclear to concerning. The plan would not only deny the nation alliance membership but also prevent member states from positioning military personnel on Ukrainian territory, effectively blocking the security presence, presumptively led by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Putin from rebuilding his weakened military, restocking, and attacking again.

World Reaction

A separate parallel deal according to sources would offer Ukraine with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any subsequent "major, intentional, and ongoing armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "would be considered as an assault endangering the tranquility of the transatlantic community." This indicates a defense action. Yet in contrast to a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's most reliable defense against renewed invasion – the credibility of the supplementary deal would rely on the dedication of Western powers, including Trump, to react through arms to Russia's attacks, something they have {not